As temperatures rise, economy dips

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economy-hits-spring-swoon/2013/04/16/34403a10-a6b1-11e2-8302-3c7e0ea97057_story.html?hpid=z4

For the third year in a row, the nation’s economic recovery seems to be petering out just as temperatures start to go up. Hiring has dropped off. Shoppers are putting away their wallets. Government spending cuts are looming.

That has fueled predictions of an abrupt slowdown over the next few months. Economists are forecasting tepid growth of just over 1 percent during the second quarter of the year. The economy was expanding at roughly twice that pace over the winter. In fact, although the drivers have been different, the slowdowns have become so reliable, and the timing so consistent, that economists have given them a name: the “spring swoon.”

No one seems to have a good explanation for why the recovery has taken a nose dive around the same time each year. Sheer coincidence seems to be economists’ best educated guess. But the swoons underscore just how ephemeral a turnaround can feel.