U.S. Economy: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

http://www.npr.org/2012/01/06/144785526/u-s-economy-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly

As the housing market bottoms out, expect to see an uptick in construction, which is traditionally the key to pulling the country out of recession, he says. "I think that's going to be one of the areas that add to growth."

Business cash flow and profitability are looking quite good too, and the credit crunch has eased somewhat, meaning companies will find it a bit easier to borrow, he says. "But the big question is whether businesses are going to be willing to go out and spend and hire in a really big way."

To say Levy's outlook for the next year — and well beyond that — is negative would be an understatement. He calls the current situation a "contained depression" that will last through this decade.

The last recession was out of the ordinary, he notes. In past downturns, it's been mostly about production getting ahead of sales. But the recession that began in 2008 was unlike those in 1961 or 1982. This time it's about private debt.