Help for job market unlikely to come from Congress

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Job creation is the fuel for the nation's economic growth. When more people have jobs, more consumers have money to spend - and consumer spending drives about 70 of the economy.

POLITICAL GRIDLOCK

Democrats and Republicans talk a lot about job creation. But a sharply divided Congress could end up being a job killer. Unless lawmakers intervene by the end of the year, income tax cuts will expire and $100 billion in spending cuts will kick in.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that would cause the economy to shrink in the first half of 2013. That would meet the traditional definition of a recession: when the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters.

The conventional wisdom is that at the last minute, lawmakers will prevent the country from falling off the so-called fiscal cliff. But until they do, economists say many businesses will remain reluctant to hire.

COUCH-SURFING

The job market remains tough even for the educated or experienced. Erica Johnson, 33, calls herself a "couch-surfing Ph.D." because she's been sleeping on sofas in the homes of friends and relatives in Lexington, Ky. Armed with a doctorate in education policy, she'd like to work as a college administrator.

But most management jobs she's pursued require more experience. Yet she's considered overqualified for lower-level jobs.

SLOW RECOVERY

Three years into the recovery, hiring remains weak by one key historical standard.

In February 1984, 15 months after the most recent severe recession had ended, the annual pace of hiring amounted to 6.5 percent of total U.S. employment.

Yet since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, job gains have been fitful. Hiring has only recently topped 2 percent of total payrolls.

What's going on?

Mainly, the economy is too weak to drive more job growth. Consumers are still cautious about spending. And the housing sector is still weak. Both are weighing on the economy more than in previous recoveries.